If there are any sure things to bet on come Sunday night, it will be the categories for male acting.
BEST ACTOR
Johnny Depp - SWEENEY TODD
Tommy Lee Jones - IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Daniel Day Lewis - THERE WILL BE BLOOD
George Clooney - MICHAEL CLAYTON
Viggo Mortensen - EASTERN PROMISES
Daniel Day-Lewis will win for sure, because he carried the long, unusual There Will Be Blood solo, on his shoulders, for almost three hours. And did a helluva job doing so. His performance in P.T. Anderson's character study will be talked about for years to come. I do not think he can or will be beaten.
Even the most ardent fans of Johnny Depp concede that his performance in the lackluster Sweeney Todd was one-note and dull. George Clooney did admirable work in a genre flick, Michael Clayton, but he himself concedes that "there's a ceiling on that genre."
Tommy Lee Jones gave a stupendous performance in the grotesque In the Valley of Elah, but that film thankfully sank like a stone at the box-office. The only person I would want to beat Day-Lewis would be Mortensen, so very good in Eastern Promises, but the film has no momentum.
Will Win: Day-Lewis
Should Win: Day-Lewis
Dark Horse: None
I can't believe Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) wasn't nominated.
I would have liked to have seen Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) nominated, for carrying a film that on paper seems unfilmable, bringing pathos and power to a comedic role.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Tom Wilkinson - MICHAEL CLAYTON
Hal Holbrook - INTO THE WILD
Casey Affleck - THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
Javier Bardem has the same, if not more, unstoppable momentum as DDL in the lead actor category. As Anton Chigurh he created a monster, and it was a great performance. He will win the Academy Award.
I could sleep soundly if Casey Affleck won, but The Assassination... was little seen. His performance was a revelation. Same goes for Hal Holbrook in Sean Penn's Into the Wild. If it weren't for Bardem, I imagine he'd be going home with a trophy. This was the first real standout on-screen performance in a career long respected, and the Academy loves to hand out those 'Lifetime Achievement' trophies to an old timer in a showboat role.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman was fine in Charlie Wilson's War, and he had a good year starring in two other well-respected films. But he won for Capote two years ago and has done better work. Tom Wilkinson, respected by the Academy, has also done better work, and will win an Oscar eventually. But not for Michael Clayton.
Will Win: Bardem
Should Win: Bardem
Dark Horse: Holbrook
This nominees for this category were easy to predict. I can't think of any likely performance slighted by the Academy.
I would, however, liked to have seen Steve Zahn, so well known as a zany comedian, nominated for his serious role as an emaciated POW in Rescue Dawn.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Laura Linney - THE SAVAGES
Marion Cotillard - LA VIE EN ROSE
Ellen Page - JUNO
Julie Christie - AWAY FROM HER
Cate Blanchett's nomination for the god-awful Elizabeth sequel proves that she's an Academy darling, but if she wins a statue it definitely won't be for this movie. Maybe her other nomination. Laura Linney can also count herself out. Her Savages nomination came out of left-field. The movie was fine and she gave an admirable performance of an uneven character, but nothing worthy of any awards.
Marion Cotillard did good work in La Vie en Rose, but subtitles distract voters from the fine points of a performance. Foreign films seldom win in acting categories (exception include Sophia Loren and Roberto 'chair-hopper' Benigni). This is an acknowledgement by the Academy-- you're alright kid. Now learn English, come back in a few years and we'll see what we can do for you.
So, the race is down to screen veteran Julie Christie and breakout ingenue Ellen Page. This was a big year for Ellen-- she became a star and helped propel Juno to more than 100 million dollars. And it's an admired performance. But..it's in a comedy, and while she did the best with Diablo Cody's screenplay, she was given some lines that even an old pro couldn't pull of convincingly. And she's up against Christie. Julie Christie, beautiful and fragile, was wonderful in Away From Her. She'll win not only because she deserves too, but because she has had a long and admirable career.
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: Julie Christie
Dark Horse: Ellen Page
I can't believe Helena Bonham Carter wasn't nominated for Sweeney Todd. She was the best thing in a film that was respected enough to earn Johnny Depp an unnecessary nod. Never underestimate the Academy's devotion to Cate Blanchett.
I would have liked to see Nicole Kidman nominated (obviously) for Margot at the Wedding. It was her best work in years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Ryan - GONE BABY GONE
Cate Blanchett - I'M NOT THERE
Ruby Dee - AMERICAN GANGSTER
Saoirse Ronan - ATONEMENT
Tilda Swinton - MICHAEL CLAYTON
This is the hardest category to predict. First, let's discount Saorise Ronan as the wicked little sister in Atonement. The Academy loves to nominate precocious youngsters (Abigail Breslin, Haley Joel Osment, Keisha Castle Hughes), but no child has won any award since Anna Paquin for The Piano in 1994. That won't change this year, because Ronan wasn't precocious at all in her film (she was good, but the Academy prefers cute), and she's overshadowed by the competition.
Many people will say that the showdown is between Cate Blanchett and Ruby Dee. Yes, Blanchett gave the best performance in any category as Bob Dylan, but I'm Not There was little seen, and she won this category in 2004 for The Aviator. There's no rush to award her another supporting trophy. Dee seems not to be a front runner because she was any good (American Gangster was an awful film and her performance was slight), but because she is old, has had a long career without ever being nominated, and her husband (Ossie Davis) died a few years back after a long and happy marriage. I reject all those reasons as grounds for receiving an Oscar. Respect, maybe, but not an Academy Award.
And, in years past, the Academy has shown a preference for both surprises in the supporting actor categories and for overlooking veterans in favor of fresh faces. I think the category will go to Amy Ryan. She has received universal accolades for her great performance in Gone Baby Gone, and was also very good in Before the Devil Knows Your Dead. Voters unfamiliar with I'm Not There and disenchanted by Ruby Dee will vote for Ryan, and she will win.
It is, however, possible that voters will feel bad for Michael Clayton, a film that received a shit load of major nominations and doesn't seem poised to win any of them. Tilda Swinton could receive some sympathy votes here, but I wouldn't count on it.
Will Win: Amy Ryan
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Dark Horse: Tilda Swinton
I can't believe Jennifer Garner wasn't nominated for her heart-tugging in Juno. A sign that the film isn't as beloved as it claims to be.
I would have liked to have seen Marisa Tomei nominated for her sex-kitten portrayal in the otherwise lackluster Before the Devil Knows Your Dead.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson- THERE WILL BE BLOOD
the Coen brothers- NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Tony Gilroy- MICHAEL CLAYTON
Jason Reitman- JUNO
Julian Schnabel- THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Julian Schnabel won't win because his film doesn't have a best picture nomination. No director has won this award without one in more than 75 years. And besides, if you really did the best job at directing in any given year, wouldn't your film be among the top five?
For Tony Gilroy and Jason Reitman, the nominations are the awards in themselves. Both are relative newcomers, and to have their films and their directing achievements nominated is about the best they can hope for, especially when faced off against the monstrous talents of the other nominees. Their films, while nicely directed, are nothing compared to the scope and vision of NCFOM or TWWB.
So, the award is narrowed down to the Coen brothers and Paul Thomas Anderson. I think the Coen brothers will win, because while they have a long and storied career as Hollywood outsiders, the Academy will not be able to deny No Country for Old Men. It was clearly the best directed (and best) film of the year. Every shot, every cut, every performance was perfect. Paul Thomas Anderson, hailed as a golden child, will win this award eventually, but not this year. His film was loose, and long and lacked the headlong driving energy of it's main competitor.
Will Win: the Coen brothers
Should Win: the Coen brothers
Dark Horse: PTA
I can't believe that Joe Wright wasn't nominated for Atonement...you think that incredible tracking shot filmed itself? That unrelenting tragedies like that just fall from the skies? Shmucks.
I would have liked to have seen Todd Haynes nominated for I'm Not There. His Bob Dylan biopic, which used six different actors to portray it's subject, was a difficult project to pull off. And he did so...brilliantly.
BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
While Atonement is great and Michael Clayton is good, there's no energy, no buzz, no passion behind these films. Atonement didn't even get a directing nod for Joe Wright, and while Michael Clayton got a slew of acting nods, they seem more like safe pics, chosen by default. These films don't have a chance.
But what about Juno? Some people really think this is the best film of the year. I don't think there are enough of those people for the film to win, though. The film has too much of a 'What's the big-deal?' vibe. It's a fine comedy, but it is not a great film. Most years the Academy likes to nominate something funny, and feel-good, to show it has a sense of humor. Juno is this years default comedy. That film almost never wins.
This is a two horse race between No Country for Old Men, a bleak existential thriller about evil personified with an aggressively anticlimactic ending that many people hated and There Will Be Blood, an epic character study about one man's descent into madness with an aggressively strange ending that many people hated. I think TWBB will win.
First, I think it's ending is less frustrating to traditional views. I think that NCFOM has a core of cool apathy that the Academy will reject for the subtle liberal politics and overblown dramatics of TWBB. I do not think that the Coen brothers have enough support among Hollywood insiders to win the main prize--they'll get Best Director. Second place. I think that the academy will be drawn to the scope of TWBB, to the virtuoso turn by Daniel Day-Lewis.
It is possible to say I am making a grave error, casting my vote in two different directions for the best director and best picture prize. Traditionally, whichever film has won one has won the other. But in recent years, the Academy has been far more liberal in it's distribution of the prizes to separate films. I think it'll happen again tomorrow night.
Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse: Juno
I can't believe Into the Wild wasn't nominated. I would have predicted it over Michael Clayton any day.
David Fincher's Zodiac, released last spring, was one of the years best films. A masterpiece criminally overlooked. I would have enjoyed seeing it get a nomination and the recognition it deserves.
In some of the lesser categories:
'Falling Slowly', from Once, will win best song. The Academy shan't make August Rush an Oscar winning film and the Enchanted songs will cancel each other out.
Transformers will win best special effects because, not only was it's CGI better than Pirates 3 and The Golden Compass, it was the better film.
Juno will be named the year's best original screenplay, because voters admire it's construction and some apparently find it's dialogue to be clever. They also will want to reward the film for being the most financially successful of all the best picture nominees, and this is the best place to do it. Plus, there will be some added entertainment value in getting the writer, Diablo Cody, a former stripper (and no, that isn't her real name) up to the podium.
No Country for Old Men will win for best adapted screenplay because, of the nominees, it was the best. End of story.
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